Peter's Blog

CPI Cools But Inflation Far From Whipped

The Federal Reserve got just the news it needed to plausibly go forward with a soft pivot in its monetary policy and begin to slow its pace of rate hikes. But while price inflation appears to be retreating, it’s far from beat. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November came in lower than expected, according […]

Government Jobs Numbers Don’t Add Up

Have you ever had a gut feeling that the labor reports put out by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are hinky? If so, trust your gut.

Fed Soft Pivot in Play; Markets Ignore J. Powell’s Hawkish Talk

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell all but confirmed a soft pivot by the central bank in its inflation fight on Wednesday, while trying to maintain a hawkish demeanor. The markets appear to be buying the pivot, but they are ignoring Powell’s “tough guy” spin.

Why the Definition of Inflation Matters

When people talk about “inflation” today, they generally mean rising prices as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). But historically, “inflation” was more precisely defined as an increase in the amount of money and credit causing advances in the price level. Inflation used to be understood as an increase in the money supply. Rising […]

Inflation Bites: Thanksgiving Meal Up 20% Compared to Last Year

Based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), prices were up 7.7% year-on-year in October. That’s a pretty hefty inflationary bite. But we’ve been saying the impact of inflation is a lot worse. The increased cost of a Thanksgiving meal this year bears that out.

Socialism Sounds Good on Paper But It Was Deadly for the Pilgrims

When I was a kid, we used to say some things only “sound good on paper.” In other words, they seem like good plans, but there is no way they’re going to work in the real world. That’s socialism in a nutshell. The Pilgrims found this out the hard way during their first couple of […]

Treasury Market Liquidity and Volatility Problems Could Derail Fed Balance Sheet Reduction

Interest rate hikes get most of the attention as the Federal Reserve fights inflation, but balance sheet reduction is arguably more important. And it’s not going well. Since the Fed stopped buying Treasuries and started letting bonds fall off its books as they mature, the bond market has experienced increasing volatility and liquidity problems. In […]

Indian Gold Demand Continued Strong in October

Festival and wedding buying boosted gold demand in India last month and the outlook looks strong moving forward.

Economically Ignorant Americans Want More Stimmy Checks to Fight Inflation

Proving that most people have no idea what causes inflation, the majority of Americans in a recent poll said they want the federal government to hand out stimulus checks to combat inflation.

Fed Sends Mixed Messages After Hiking Rates

The Federal Reserve sent out mixed messages after its November FOMC meeting leaving markets wondering just how much more the central bank will tighten monetary policy. As expected, the Fed delivered another 75 basis point rate hike, pushing the Fed funds rate to between 3.75 and 4%. The last time interest rates were this high […]