Last Week in Metals: Other Metals Join the Party
Gold finished last week at US $3,352 per ounce, a modest 0.6 % gain that nonetheless leaves the metal up an eye-catching 28.5 % year-to-date. Monday’s trade saw prices probe as high as US $3,365, keeping bullion within arm’s reach of the two-month trading ceiling that technicians have marked at US $3,395. All of this comes with a Federal Reserve still unsure of whether to step on the monetary brakes or tap the accelerator. In short, safe-haven demand is doing the heavy lifting—and Washington’s renewed tariff barrage is adding fresh weight to the barbell.
President Donald Trump last week extended his 90-day tariff “pause” but simultaneously slapped 30 % levies on goods from the EU and Mexico, 35 % on Canadian imports, and boosted duties on Brazilian products to 50 %. A headline-grabbing 50 % tariff on imported copper instantly sent that metal to record highs, underscoring worries that the next inflation flare-up may be driven less by demand and more by cost-push pressures. Even with the greenback advancing 0.7 % on the week, the prospect of tariff-induced price spikes appears to be overriding currency headwinds for bullion buyers. To those who favor sound money, the episode is a reminder that political quick fixes often come with inflationary side effects.
Futures positioning is equally intriguing. Net-long positions in COMEX gold slipped, yet the options market has turned more bullish, suggesting traders are quietly bracing for an upside breakout. Meanwhile, the falling gold-to-silver ratio hints that silver, platinum, and palladium may soon steal a bit of bullion’s thunder—a classic rotation when investors sense a broader precious-metals rally rather than a one-metal wonder.
Macro data offer more cross-currents than clarity. U.S. initial jobless claims surprised by dropping to 227,000, reinforcing the Fed hawks’ argument to stay tight. Yet S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow just 4.8 % in Q2—the slowest pace since late 2023—while minutes from June show several FOMC officials already eyeing a July rate cut. Throw rising input costs into that mix, and stagflation, a term economists hoped had been retired, is creeping back into market chatter.
Outside America, the picture is hardly comforting. Euro-area retail sales slid 0.7 % in May, German exports fell 1.4 %, and U.K. GDP has contracted for two straight months. Japan’s real wages cratered 2.9 % year-on-year, China remains in a mild deflationary funk, and the Reserve Bank of Australia is signaling possible easing. Taken together, the global growth engine sputters just as trade frictions threaten to gum up the gears even more.
With economic signals flashing amber and policy responses anything but coordinated, gold’s resilience feels less like speculation and more like insurance. A decisive push through US $3,395 could invite a new wave of momentum buying, but even a pullback would leave bullion sitting well above its long-term uptrend.
