Peter's Blog

July’s advance purchasing-manager numbers paint a tale of two economies. The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI jumped to 54.6—its best showing in seven months—thanks almost entirely to a roaring service sector that notched a 55.2 reading. Manufacturing, by contrast, slipped back into contraction territory at 49.5, a full three points below Wall Street’s consensus […]

President Trump’s insistence on lowering interest rates serves only the ever-growing spending state. Lower interest rates may relieve some price pressure in the housing market, but printing money is only going to make things worse in the long run.

The U.S. economy’s “early-warning siren” just grew louder. The Conference Board reported Monday that its Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.3 percent in June to 98.8—a level not seen since 2020. The decline extends the LEI’s losing streak to 18 of the last 19 months and pushes its six-month drop to 2.8 percent. With the […]

Gold finished last week at US $3,352 per ounce, a modest 0.6 % gain that nonetheless leaves the metal up an eye-catching 28.5 % year-to-date. Monday’s trade saw prices probe as high as US $3,365, keeping bullion within arm’s reach of the two-month trading ceiling that technicians have marked at US $3,395. All of this […]

Consumer confidence remains in the dumps, thanks in large part to rising prices in essential goods and services like housing. Contrary to the Trump administration’s preference for lower interest rates, the solution to the housing affordability crisis is to end the Fed, which created and still sustains the problem.

Consumers may be breathing a small sigh of relief, but they’re hardly celebrating. The University of Michigan’s latest “Current versus Pre-Pandemic Long-Run Inflation Expectations” update, released Friday, shows the median expectation for inflation over the next 5 years dipping to 4.0 % in June after topping out at 4.4 % in April. While that is […]

The Federal Reserve announced yesterday that it would maintain the federal funds rate at its current target range of 4.25% to 4.5%, despite mounting concerns over inflation and economic uncertainty. In its latest monetary policy statement, the Fed said that economic activity continues to expand solidly, but simultaneously cautioned that inflation remains elevated. With the […]

Last week Peter joined Peter Gadsdon at The Mining Network for a wide-ranging conversation on the drivers behind the gold market, the true nature of global trade, and the persistent headwinds facing the US economy. In his critique of the mainstream narrative, Peter argues that headlines and central bank policies—not real economic fundamentals—are moving markets, […]

On Sunday night, Peter returned to the mic to analyze a volatile week on Wall Street. He unpacks the market’s recent surge, the political pressures buffeting the Federal Reserve, and the deeper consequences of unsound economic policy. From the opaque motives driving central bankers to the misleading optimism embedded in public statements about tariffs and […]

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect.