Peter's Blog

The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board concluded its July 30-31, 2026 meeting with a fresh “Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices” that keeps inflation in focus. While the Bank raised its fiscal 2026 growth estimate slightly to a median 0.6 percent, it still expects consumer prices (all items less fresh food) to climb a median […]

Can Japan just keep propping up the yen forever?  At a certain point, Japan won’t be able to just keep dumping dollars and Treasuries to prevent its currency from imploding.  With an economy so sensitive to rate hikes after decades of zero-interest rate policy, the Bank of Japan can’t endlessly jack up the cost of […]

Japan’s central bankers are juggling a stubbornly hot CPI, cooling exports, and a fresh volley of U.S. tariffs—all while investors pile into gold. In its July 30th-31st policy meeting, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) conceded the economy “has recovered moderately,” yet warned that escalating trade friction is set to sap growth “in the near term.” […]

As the west muddles through murky economic waters, many call on the Federal Reserve to hold off a recession. But, as our neighbors to the east show us, central banks are highly constrained in what they can actually accomplish, and more inflation isn’t the right move.

The troubled yen surged last week as the Fed cemented their decision to implement a huge interest rate cut as Shigeru Ishiba, an advocate for higher interest rates in Japan, won the election for Japanese Prime Minister.

Earlier this year, we discussed the likelihood of the yen carry trade unwinding under the BoJ’s decision to end decades of zero-interest rate policy, or ZIRP. That unwinding now appears to be entering full swing.

On one hand, the Band of Japan says that it wants long-term interest rates to be dictated by market forces. But on the other hand, the BoJ has been spending 6 trillion yen per month buying bonds to prop up its currency. In other words, it’s doing everything in the world to control short-term interest […]

The yen was once known as a safe-haven currency for investors to protect themselves when broader markets are shaky or other currencies are dropping, but those days are numbered. A stable government and consistent (and low) interest rates have been some of the driving factors, but it’s the unwinding of that ultra-low interest rate policy that will be the yen’s “safe […]

Decades of negative interest rate policy in Japan have ended. That could mean the end of the $20 trillion “yen carry trade,” once one of the most popular trades on foreign exchange markets, and a chain reaction in the global economy. The yen carry trade is when investors borrow yen to buy assets denominated in […]

The Bank of Japan’s historic move to end the country’s negative interest rate policy after nearly two decades triggered a jolt upward to new all-time highs for gold against the yen. But what are the implications for gold in the medium and longer term? The answer is far from simple.