Peter's Blog

The Fed Holds Rates at 4.5% Amid Rising Risks of Stagflation

As of last week, the Federal Reserve has basically admitted it doesn’t know what’s happening in the economy. One thing’s for sure: inflation is still a problem.

U.S. Economy Stumbles into Negative Territory Amid Rising Inflation and Imports

America’s economy contracted slightly in the first quarter of 2025, with real GDP slipping 0.3%, reversing from a solid 2.4% growth seen in the previous quarter. According to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the downturn was largely driven by surging imports and reduced government spending. Despite underlying resilience in […]

GDP’s Hidden Flaws: How Spending Metrics Distort Economic Reality

As warning signs of recession grow, the political class will increasingly point to misleading statistics as proof of their competency. The most popular economic aggregate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is worth nuancing.

Surging Trade Deficit Likely to Reverse in the Months Ahead

The Trade Deficit is one of the two components of the twin deficits; the other being the federal budget deficit which was last reviewed in January. The trade deficit used to be a number that received a ton of attention in the 1980s and 1990s because it was determined to be a strong gauge of […]

Massive Deficit Spending Tows US Economy Forward

Rampant government spending continues to mask fundamental weaknesses in the US economy. Recently, national debt grew much faster than the economy for the third quarter in a row, just one of many warning signs concerning legendary investors. Our guest commentator explains just how much the government is spending to make the economy seem strong, even […]

Why Americans Don’t See A Healthy Economy

The US economy is bloated. Years of massive spending and stimulus fed government bureaucracy and elites, but left behind record-high debt and stagnant income for everyone else. It’s no wonder Americans don’t see a healthy economy. Our guest commentator delves into this disconnect.

The Future for Fiat

The day of reckoning for unproductive credit is in sight. With G7 national finances spiraling out of control, debt traps are being sprung on all of them, with the sole exception of Germany.

Navigating By Stars on a Cloudy Night: SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Oct. 27, 2023

When it comes to economic data, context matters. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey explains how the Fed, many mainstream economists, and financial network talking heads get a lot wrong because of bad data, shoddy economic frameworks, and ignorance of history. Along the way, he covers the GDP and the […]

Don’t Rely on GDP

An important error in statistical analysis is that mathematical economists have lost sight of what their beloved statistics represent —none more so than with GDP. In this analysis, I explain why GDP is simply the total of accumulating currency and credit which is wrongly taken to reflect economic progress — there being no such thing […]

We’ve Been Gaslit! SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Sept. 29, 2023

The economy is great! Inflation is dead! We’re on our way to a soft landing! We keep hearing messages like this over and over again from Fed officials, the Biden administration, academics, and financial news pundits. But doesn’t the spin seem a little detached from reality? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host […]