Peter's Blog

JOLTS Stalls Again as Gold Hovers Above $4,000

The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed little movement across the major measures. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that job openings were “little changed” at 7.4 million in June 2026, a 4.4 percent openings rate that has barely budged for months. Hiring held at 5.3 million, while total separations stayed near […]

BOJ Sees Inflation Holding Above Target, Signals Further Tightening

The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board concluded its July 30-31, 2026 meeting with a fresh “Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices” that keeps inflation in focus. While the Bank raised its fiscal 2026 growth estimate slightly to a median 0.6 percent, it still expects consumer prices (all items less fresh food) to climb a median […]

Washington Joins Tokyo in Rare Yen Intervention; Gold Gains on Currency Uncertainty

In an unexpected echo of the 1990s, the U.S. Treasury on July 31st directed the New York Fed to sell euros and purchase Japanese yen, marking the first outright yen-buying intervention by the United States since 1998. Tokyo’s Ministry of Finance had already entered the market earlier that day, and Washington’s involvement turned the move […]

Income Rises, Saving Falls, Gold Holds Above $4,100

Americans earned more in June yet saved less, according to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal income rose 0.2 percent, or $54.9 billion, while disposable personal income (DPI) increased at the same pace. Consumers did not retain the additional income for long: personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose […]

Consumer Confidence Declines Again; Gold Over $4,000

U.S. households grew more pessimistic in July, according to the latest data from the Conference Board, and investors responded by sending gold to yet another record. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 1.4 points to 90.8 (1985=100), down from an upwardly revised 92.2 in June and continuing a decline that has persisted since late […]

Americans, The Fed, and Bond Markets Agree on Inflation

American citizens, the Fed, and bond markets all know: Inflation isn’t under control. When the Fed prints, they write inflation on the wall. And even if they do everything “perfectly” to return inflation to the target of 2%, that’s just slowing down the pace of their stealing. Your purchasing power is still robbed from you, […]

Fed Holds at 3.50–3.75%, but Inflation Stays Stubborn

The Federal Open Market Committee left its target range for the federal-funds rate unchanged at 3.50 to 3.75 percent on July 29, opting for continuity even as price pressures refuse to cool. The 9-3 vote, only Chairman Kevin Warsh’s second FOMC meeting as chairman, preserves a policy mix that pairs flat rates with what officials […]

Comex: Delivery Volume Remains Elevated but Inventories are not Impacted

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.). The data below looks at […]

Forget Stocks, Buy Pokémon

“Buy Pokémon cards, not stocks” might seem like a ridiculous phrase until one examines the price history. The market over the past several years has been extremely volatile. From mid-February to early April of 2025, the S&P 500 pulled back nearly 20% from its all-time high, and even the ‘safe’ index of American blue-chip companies […]

Oil Shock, AI Boom Complicate Fed’s Path, Vice Chair Jefferson Says

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson told an audience at Stanford University on July 16 that monetary policy is facing a “delicate balancing act,” as overlapping shocks from the Middle East conflict, post-pandemic imbalances, and newly erected trade barriers keep inflation above target and threaten to unmoor expectations. The remarks, delivered at the Stanford Institute […]