Peter's Blog

After a delicate dance of interest rate increases, Jerome Powell has declared victory on inflation and says to expect looser monetary policy this year. But with junk bond spreads not widening nearly as much as one would expect during an era of economic tightening, you’ve got to wonder if money is still actually looser than the Fed’s […]

The Federal Reserve pulled off a magnificent manipulation of the junk bond market, facilitated a massive wealth transfer from savers to speculators, pocketed millions of dollars, and then washed its hands of the matter. In March 2020, as governments shut down the economy for coronavirus, the Fed slashed interest rates and launched a massive quantitative […]

Last month, we reported on troubling signs in the corporate bond market. According to Moody’s, the majority of US companies have a “speculative” credit rating. They are considered high risk. As a result, their debt is “high yield” or “junk. When you combine leveraged loans and junk bonds, the total level of “junk” debt in the […]

We’ve written a lot about government debt and warning signs in the Treasuries market. The US government needs to sell over a trillion dollars in bonds a year over the next few years to finance its skyrocketing deficit. Who exactly will buy all of these government bonds remains unclear and the impact on interest rates could […]