Peter's Blog

Fed Governor Waller Defends $6.7 Trillion Balance Sheet

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller used a Dallas Fed podium Thursday to peel back the curtain on the central bank’s swollen balance sheet—and to argue that a slim-down is overdue but shouldn’t be draconian. Since 2007, Fed assets have ballooned from $870 billion (about 6 percent of U.S. GDP) to roughly $6.7 trillion, even […]

New Insights from the Fed’s Meeting Minutes: Market Expects Rate Cuts

Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s June 17–18 meeting show policymakers content to hold their fire—for now. The Fed kept its benchmark federal-funds range at 4¼–4½ percent and left both the interest rate on reserve balances (4.4 percent) and the primary-credit rate (4.5 percent) untouched. Officials insisted that “recent indicators suggest that economic activity […]

ADP Logs Surprise 33,000 Job Drop 

Hiring hit the brakes in June, with the ADP National Employment Report showing U.S. private-sector payrolls shrinking by 33,000 positions—the first monthly contraction of 2025. Goods makers managed to eke out modest gains, but service industries bled jobs, and small businesses took the biggest hit. Wages, meanwhile, kept climbing faster than the official inflation gauges, […]

Japan’s Inflation Problem Is Cornering Its Central Bank

As the west muddles through murky economic waters, many call on the Federal Reserve to hold off a recession. But, as our neighbors to the east show us, central banks are highly constrained in what they can actually accomplish, and more inflation isn’t the right move.

What the AI Boom Means for Precious Metals

We are living through the early stages of a technological revolution, and Wall Street is salivating over artificial intelligence. AI is being hailed as the new electricity: a transformative force destined to rewire nearly every industry, capital flows, and the very nature of human productivity itself. 

Fed Critics’ Three Central-Banking Myths

Some free-marketers mistakenly believe that the Federal Reserve would be more effective if it operated in a different political environment or had more resources to control the monetary supply. Instead, as the Austrian school emphasizes, the problem is with central banking per se. Central planning never works, especially when the planning is over the money […]

Trump Demands Fed Easing to Finance Even Larger Deficits

While it’s correct to criticize the Federal Reserve for inevitably bungling monetary policy, the Trump administration is wrong to criticize Jerome Powell and the FOMC for failing to cut rates. Printing money, contrary to President Trumps belief, is never the answer.

New Policy Report: Fed has Bad News for Congress

In a report released on Friday, the Fed provided a monetary policy update to congress, highlighting its perspective on keeping rates constant and its outlook on the future of the economy. The report comes after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its federal-funds-rate target locked at 4¼ %–4½ % for a sixth straight meeting […]

The Technicals: Gold Bull Market Still Looks Very Strong

This analysis attempts to look at different metrics to understand the current momentum in the gold and silver markets. It is meant as an analysis on potential price direction in the very short-term (a few weeks to 1-2 months).

BoE Freezes Rates at 4.25% While CPI Re-Accelerates

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept its main Bank Rate steady at 4.25 percent yesterday, resisting a growing chorus for relief even as inflation flared again and growth sputtered. Minutes published Thursday reveal a 6–3 split—the most dissent since 2020—with Swati Dhingra, Dave Ramsden, and newcomer Alan Taylor pushing for a 25-basis-point […]