Peter's Blog

The Warsh Fed is Growing Money Supply at the Fastest Rate since Covid

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect. One key metric shown below is the “Wenzel” 13-week annualized money […]

World Gold Council: The Indian Gold Market is Accelerating

International gold prices climbed 9% in the first two weeks of August, according to the World Gold Council’s latest India market update. Domestic Indian prices followed suit, gaining nearly 7% over the same period, though the rupee’s appreciation against the US dollar softened the impact for Indian buyers. The move marks a recovery from June’s […]

The Federal Reserve’s Independence Is an Illusion

The Fed’s supposed independence from the Treasury has always been more rhetoric than reality, and recent friction between Treasury Secretary Bessent and the Fed over currency intervention shows how that rhetoric bends whenever cooperation is convenient. The claimed separation lets both institutions share credit when policy succeeds and deflect blame onto each other when it […]

July Fed Meeting Minutes Reveal a Divided Central Bank

Even as inflation continues to run well above the central bank’s stated 2% target, the Fed’s latest decision was to hold interest rates steady. The meeting’s minutes were released on Wednesday, August 19th, offering a glimpse into the Fed governors’ perspectives on the economy and their role in it. Three regional Fed presidents, Beth Hammack, […]

Canada’s Inflation Accelerates to 3.0%, Exceeding Central Bank Comfort Zone

Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% year over year in July 2026, accelerating from June’s 2.8% increase and raising questions about official assessments that inflation has been successfully contained. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.5% before seasonal adjustment, or 0.3% after adjustment, with prices continuing to rise despite years of supposed monetary tightening. […]

Why the FIMA Repo Facility Can’t Save Japan (Or the U.S.)

Japan’s long experiment with near-zero rates and relentless deficit spending is hitting its limits, and the consequences are eventually going to hit U.S. markets. The yen’s slide toward levels not seen in decades forced Tokyo into repeated interventions, and for the first time since 1998, Washington joined in to save the U.S. and the world […]

Gold ETFs Return to Inflows as European and Asian Demand Rebounds

Global investors added about US$3 billion to gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in July, ending a two-month run of net outflows. The inflows lifted total assets under management 1 percent higher, to US$530 billion, and coincided with a 2 percent rise in spot prices, enough to end gold’s four-month decline. European and Asian buyers accounted for […]

Fed’s Cook Says Inflation “Too High” as Gold Surges Past $4,250

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook delivered a familiar warning in a speech in Anchorage on August 5th: price pressures remain stubborn. Citing a 3.7 percent annual rise in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index through June, Cook said flatly, “Inflation is too high.” Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, is running at […]

JOLTS Stalls Again as Gold Hovers Above $4,000

The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed little movement across the major measures. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that job openings were “little changed” at 7.4 million in June 2026, a 4.4 percent openings rate that has barely budged for months. Hiring held at 5.3 million, while total separations stayed near […]

BOJ Sees Inflation Holding Above Target, Signals Further Tightening

The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board concluded its July 30-31, 2026 meeting with a fresh “Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices” that keeps inflation in focus. While the Bank raised its fiscal 2026 growth estimate slightly to a median 0.6 percent, it still expects consumer prices (all items less fresh food) to climb a median […]