Peter's Blog

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell took the podium in Warwick, Rhode Island on September 23rd to explain why policymakers trimmed the federal funds target another 25 basis points last week. Speaking to the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce, Powell said the new 4.00–4.25 percent range moves policy “toward a more neutral stance.” Yet in the […]

After posturing to use tariffs to eliminate income tax, the Trump administration has now shifted to a narrative that they’ll pay off deficits. Both promises are hollow.  Deficits as massive and persistent as ours demand massive Treasury issuance. That means markets have to absorb ever-larger supply, pushing yields higher if demand fails to keep up. […]

Along with Trump, market watchers are salivating for rate cuts. But rates should be higher, not lower—and in a free market, they would be. In a free market, interest rates are determined by the supply and demand for credit. Savers provide capital (supply) while borrowers like businesses, consumers, and governments create demand. Rates would reflect […]

Trump has repeatedly pressured Powell to lower interest rates, thinking that a spiral of Keynesian growth can undo the damage he has wrought with tariffs and one of the most hands on governments economically in recent memory. Let alone the theoretical weakness of Trump’s stands, he is viewing the Fed in an unprecedented yet still […]

This year’s April Fools joke from the Federal Reserve is the same this year as every other:  Pretending that a small group of unelected academics can micromanage the economy to create an ideal balance between employment, inflation, and cost of borrowing. The Fed wants to control the economy, but all it achieves is distortion. And […]

For the last two years, the media and establishment political class have claimed Fed policy has been sufficiently restrictive to tame inflation. But with Jerome Powell’s recent admission that inflation is higher than it should be, it’s clear that the Fed has not been hawkish enough. The following article was originally published by the Mises […]

Powell is admitting that inflation is still too high, but the Fed still plans to cut interest rates by .25%. So why are mortgage rates going up?

Fed chair Powell slammed the “panic button” this week. On Wednesday the Fed began a rate-cutting cycle in an environment of rising unemployment. This situation is historically associated with recession, but Powell is desperate for you to think that “this time is different.”

Yet again the myth of a “soft landing” even as the CPI surges past its target. Powell is now keen to extinguish the fire though disastrous rate cuts, a sign that the recession is already here.

With gold hitting yet another awe-inspiring all-time high in the wake of Powell’s remarks reassuring markets (more or less) to expect rate cuts in 2024, a few analysts are pointing out risk factors for a correction — so is there really still room to run?