Peter's Blog

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends.  Breaking Down the Balance Sheet  In March, the Fed announced a further reduction in the balance sheet runoff from $25B a month to […]

After posturing to use tariffs to eliminate income tax, the Trump administration has now shifted to a narrative that they’ll pay off deficits. Both promises are hollow.  Deficits as massive and persistent as ours demand massive Treasury issuance. That means markets have to absorb ever-larger supply, pushing yields higher if demand fails to keep up. […]

Peter recently joined Danny on the Capitalcosm YouTube channel to lay out a connected story about reserve shifts, rising interest rates, and an overstated economic optimism at the top. He argues that foreign central banks are moving out of U.S. dollars into gold, that America’s record debt is starting to show in higher yields, and […]

This year’s April Fools joke from the Federal Reserve is the same this year as every other:  Pretending that a small group of unelected academics can micromanage the economy to create an ideal balance between employment, inflation, and cost of borrowing. The Fed wants to control the economy, but all it achieves is distortion. And […]

Powell is admitting that inflation is still too high, but the Fed still plans to cut interest rates by .25%. So why are mortgage rates going up?

On the special 1000th episode of the Peter Schiff Show, Peter tackles another week of economic data and, most importantly, the December FOMC meeting, in which another 25 basis point rate cut was announced. Peter spends the bulk of this episode discussing new ramifications for monetary policy and domestic politics, and he offers his analysis […]

In the wake of the Fed’s juicy 50 bps interest rate cut, the dollar responded immediately by dropping against gold. With more rate cuts on the way, Israel’s war expanding rapidly, and inflation ready to rip higher, new record prices are on the way for the yellow metal.

In the fight against inflation, is it the Fed or the Treasury that calls the shots? The answer is, it’s both. The Fed raises interest rates to make loans less attractive and bring inflation down, but The Treasury has its own set of magic tricks to artificially “stimulate” or “tighten” the economy as well. One of […]

The federal budget deficit for September 2021 was $61.5 billion, down from the $171 billion in August. Even though the deficit fell 64% MoM, it was driven primarily by receipts. Spending was up 18.7% MoM but receipts were up 71.2% driven by a surge in corporate and individual taxes.

The Federal Budget Deficit for August 2021 was $171B which was down from the $302B in July. The chart below shows the Federal Budget for the previous 18 months.