Peter’s Blog

Death-spiral — The downward, corkscrew-motion of a disabled aircraft which is unrecoverably headed for a crash. The US federal government may well be in a death spiral  – or perhaps we should call it a debt-spiral. 

Yields have been on the rise this week in the midst of a bond market sell-off. Two-year borrowing costs hit their highest level in a decade Wednesday. The yield on the 2-year Treasury climbed to 2.816%. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield hit a four-month high of 3.07%. What’s going on here?

It looks like we’re heading toward a full-blown trade war. As the war continues to escalate. Pres. Trump has levied more tariffs on Chinese imports in retaliation for China’s retaliation after the US announced its first round of tariffs. A lot of people seem to think this is bullish for the dollar. In fact, the greenback […]

The Russians are dumping US Treasuries and buying gold. As we reported earlier this week, the three largest holders of US Treasuries are not in a buying mood. In fact, they’re selling. The Japanese disposed of $12.3 billion in US debt. Meanwhile, Chinese Treasury holdings fell by $5.8 billion. The Federal Reserve has shed about $70 billion in […]

The Japanese and Chinese aren’t buying US Treasuries. In fact, both countries reduced their holdings in April. According to the US Treasury Department, the Japanese disposed of $12.3 billion in US debt. Meanwhile, Chinese Treasury holdings fell by $5.8 billion. This could be a troubling development for the US government as it scrambles to fund its […]

The US government has hit borrowing levels not seen since the peak of the financial crisis. The US Treasury’s net borrowing totaled $488 billion from January through March, according to a statement released Monday. That was $47 billion more than the department’s estimate. It was also a record for first quarter borrowing, according to Bloomberg.

He’s been dubbed the “Bond King,” but Jeffery Gundlach isn’t particularly bullish on bonds right now – at least not US government bonds. And he’s certainly not bullish on stocks. Gundlach has his eyes on gold. Gundlach heads DoubleLine Capital, overseeing some $119 billion in assets. During a speech at the 2018 Sohn Investment Conference last week, he said […]

Last week, Pres. Trump said US markets might have to endure some short-term pain if the trade war with China escalates. But never fear, in the long run, everything will be great! We have to do things that other people wouldn’t do. So, we may take a hit, but you know what, ultimately, we’re going […]

Expectations that the Fed will continue and perhaps even quicken the pace of interest rates hikes have created headwinds for gold. But there another side to the rising interest rate phenomenon that a lot of people in the mainstream seem to be missing. According to a recent Bloomberg report, the prospect of a higher interest […]

The Federal Reserve claims to be tightening. According to the conventional wisdom, the Fed will raise interest rates at least three times in 2018 – maybe even four. And last fall, the central bank announced its plan to begin shrinking its balance sheet. But have you actually looked at the Fed’s balance sheet? Dan Kurz […]