Peter's Blog

Not Just the US: Global Debt-To-GDP Ratios Are Skyrocketing

The US national debt is so out of control that, ironically enough, even the Federal Reserve chair has expressed concern about the problem. And while America is among the top contributors, it isn’t just the US that’s spending money it doesn’t have: after briefly declining in 2023, the global debt-to-GDP ratio is again at an all-time high.

New Schiff Interview: America Needs to Go Cold Turkey on Debt

Peter recently appeared on the Bald Guy Money show for a conversation on gold’s role in American and global politics, the influence of the BRICS coalition on metals markets, and, as always these days, the disastrous monetary policy coming out of the Fed. 

Yellen Continues Betting on Interest Rate Declines

In February, the data showed that Yellen was making a big bet that long-term rates would not stay elevated for long. This was demonstrated by the volume of short-term debt issuance. The Treasury was willing to pay higher rates to keep the maturity of the debt shorter.

Will the Next Debt Ceiling Debate Conclude in Abolishment?

The Treasury has an open data platform where they publish all of the data related to the US Treasury. This includes debt, spending, revenue, etc. Different data sets are updated at different frequencies. The official US Debt is updated monthly (typically by the fourth business day). This data can be seen in the chart below.

US Debt Analysis: Net Interest to Exceed $700B by November

While the US government is not currently adding to the national debt due to being up against the debt ceiling, it is working overtime trying to keep the government afloat. Significantly, the interest on the national debt is skyrocketing even with the temporary lull in borrowing.

The Treasury Begins Extraordinary Measures (again)

Despite hitting the debt ceiling, the US Treasury managed to add $35 billion in new debt during January. The Treasury has employed extraordinary measures, including exchanging Non-Marketable (e.g., Government employee retirement funds) and other forms of debt for short-term Bills. The balance on Bills grew by $241 billion which was the largest single-month growth since […]

US Debt Hits the Ceiling – Interest Payments Keep Growing

The US government has once again run up against the debt ceiling. Meanwhile, interest payments on the debt keep growing. The Treasury only added $6B of debt in December, allowing short-term debt to mature and replacing it with longer-term debt. This makes sense as long-term rates are below short-term rates with the inverted yield curve.

Annualized Interest Set to Exceed $700B By July, Up $400B in Two Years

The Treasury added $175B in new debt during November, hitting the debt ceiling of $31.4T. New debt issuance was focused on the short end of the curve with $145B in Treasury Bills issued.

Treasury Locks in Higher Rates for Longer Despite Exploding Interest Costs

Over the last 18 months, the Treasury has aggressively converted short-term debt to longer-term debt. This can be seen in the chart below with the turquoise bars being negative.

Calling the Fed’s Bluff: They are Holding a Losing Hand

The Fed has talked a big game lately. Many people (including me) assumed the Fed would fold a long time ago. There is a very good reason — the Fed will crush the economy and the US Treasury with higher interest rates. In reality, the Fed is holding a losing hand and trying to bluff […]