Peter's Blog

US Debt: The Sting of Higher Interest Rates is Just Getting Started

The Treasury increased the total debt by $27B in June. Activity slowed in the latest month across all instruments, but particularly the conversion of short-term to long-term. After massive moves to extend debt maturity and shrink short-term debt by $530B over 4 months (shown below by the large negative turquoise bars), July went very quiet.

A New Paradigm: Interest Grows Even When Total Debt Shrinks

The Treasury reduced the total debt by $27B in April. This is not atypical since Tax Day falls in April. In April 2016 and 2018, the debt shrunk $78B and $21B respectively. April 2017 and 2019 were both flat due to a debt ceiling saga. 2020 and 2021 were exceptions because the tax deadline was […]

Has the Taper Finally Started? Who Will Fill the Massive Gap?

While on the surface, it appears the Federal Reserve asset purchase taper has started, it’s not as easy to prove when you dig into the details. The Fed is certainly not being as aggressive as they promised, and for good reason. As the Fed leaves the bond market, who will fill the gap? Since 2019, […]

What Taper? Fed Adds $126 Billion to Balance Sheet in November

The Fed added $82 billion in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) and $65 billion in Treasuries to its balance sheet while allowing $22 billion in repo agreements to roll off the balance sheet. The net gain was $126 billion in the month that the “taper” was set to begin.

Total US Debt Shrinks by $101 Billion into Debt Ceiling Saga

“Just because something is inevitable, does not make it imminent, but eventually the future arrives” The US Government is on an unsustainable debt trajectory. Even though the Federal Reserve has acknowledged this fact, most mainstream pundits consider it a distant problem or even not an issue at all. They argue that debt fears have raged […]