Peter's Blog

On Thursday, Peter joined host Danny on CapitalCosm to unpack the deepening cracks in the US debt market and what they mean for the dollar, oil, and the political landscape heading into 2026. He walks through weak Treasury demand, the fragile yen carry trade, and why “growing our way out of debt” remains a fantasy, […]

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends. Breaking Down the Balance Sheet The Fed has quietly been doing Quantitative Easing since February. The pace of accumulation has slowed in recent […]

Current Trends The US government has borrowed over $800B in the last three months. This is a gargantuan sum of money that annualizes to ~$3.2T. This is an astonishing amount of money given the economy is not technically in recession. If there is an even a minor bump in the economy, the government spending will […]

Peter joined Michael Simmons on Reality Check last week to explain why the recent drops in gold and silver are exactly the kind of price action investors should welcome. He connects the sell-off to forced liquidations in other markets, walks through decades of Federal Reserve (the Fed) policy mistakes, and warns that continued dollar creation […]

At the end of January, in addition to his highly anticipated debate at the Plan B Bitcoin Forum in El Salvador, Peter also took part in an interview with debate moderator Stephan Livera on his podcast. In their conversation, Peter lays out a broad critique of where he thinks American policy and markets are headed: […]

Current Trends The government hit the debt ceiling back in January which blocked any net new debt from being created from January to June. Once the debt ceiling was lifted, the government wasted no time in catching up for all the months where borrowing was frozen. Over the last 7 months, the government borrowed an […]

After posturing to use tariffs to eliminate income tax, the Trump administration has now shifted to a narrative that they’ll pay off deficits. Both promises are hollow.  Deficits as massive and persistent as ours demand massive Treasury issuance. That means markets have to absorb ever-larger supply, pushing yields higher if demand fails to keep up. […]

The Trump administration wanted to get bond yields down, but yields have skyrocketed more than in over four decades. Investors are jittery about holding US debt in response to Trump’s trade wars and, possibly, the idea of a president who is pushing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in what would amount to a bid against the […]

The Government debt binge has slowed in the latest month, adding only $2B in new debt for January.

2025 is staged for a record-breaking year of debt. Although the incoming Trump administration projects an attitude of fiscal responsibility, drastic action will need to be taken to stave off adding trillions to the national debt. The following article was originally published by the Mises Institute. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of […]