What Will Black Friday 2025 Tell Us About American Consumers?

Black Friday, the ultimate consumer holiday, has lost some of its luster in recent years as Americans become increasingly indebted, cash-strapped, and hamstrung by high inflation. Known as an all-out buying bonanza where shoppers flood retailers for deals on everything from TVs and toys to kitchen utensils, this year all signs point to a muted event with shoppers pumping the brakes to preserve their already-stressed bank accounts.

As a barometer of consumer sentiment, this year, Black Friday is expected to confirm what we already knew: Americans can no longer afford what they used to be able to, even with once-irresistible discounts on the biggest shopping day of the year. It’s affecting both lower and higher-earning households who are cash-strapped, with stagnant wages and increasing fear of a broader economic downturn.

A Deloitte survey of over one thousand consumers found that at incomes between $50,000 and $200,000, shoppers plan on spending significantly less this year (between 12% and 18% less, respectively). Shoppers in the middle, earning between $100,000 to $199,000, plan on spending only very slightly more — about 5%.

But spending cutbacks only tell one part of the story. Not only are Americans consuming less, but for what little they do spend, a majority are relying on financing their Black Friday purchases. Despite the discounted price tags, these shoppers are going deeper into debt to stretch payments out and conserve more money in their bank accounts for the short-term. And regardless of what CPI numbers say, the price of gold shows the real story of currency weakness.

Gold vs USD, 10-Year 

And since these rapidly-proliferating “Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) schemes have only recently started being incorporated into consumer debt monitoring, we’re still learning just how much additional consumer debt they represent in the broader economy. For years, BNPL metrics were a black box, and no one really knew how much debt they were adding to the system.

Black Friday used to inspire excitement, anticipation, and the thrill of scoring deals on luxuries that felt like a once-a-year reward. Today, it feels more like a necessity in order for consumers to afford electronics, winter clothing, and appliances that, for the rest of the year, are out of reach. Rather than a downright splurge, so-called increasingly “value-centric” Americans are taking advantage of deals to meet needs they’ve been deferring for months. With Cyber Monday and Black Friday, families buy the things they’ve postponed until discounts are deep enough to justify the expense.

Retailers are sensing the shift too. Many have started rolling out deals earlier and promoting them longer, hoping to lure hesitant shoppers who are stretching every dollar. But extending the discount shopping season with gimmicks like “Travel Tuesday” doesn’t solve the core issue. If anything, it has flattened demand and made the traditional Black Friday “surge” less of a reliable windfall.

Companies are increasingly concerned about what these patterns signal for the broader holiday season. Retailers rely heavily on November and December sales to meet annual projections, and a soft Black Friday often foreshadows an equally lackluster December. That puts pressure not only on earnings but on inventory strategies, staffing, and promotional budgets heading into the new year, and it’s not a problem that printing more money or lowering interest rates can fix.

The irony is that even as consumers cut back, they’re more overwhelmed than ever by the sheer volume of choices, promotions, and financing options. The shopping landscape has never been more cluttered, but the average shopper has never been less financially equipped to navigate it. The psychological fatigue of constant price-watching and deal-hunting has turned what once felt like a fun kickoff to the holiday season into yet another source of stress for indebted Americans.

If Black Friday once captured the optimistic heartbeat of the American consumer, today it reveals an economy that’s treading water and a dollar that keeps buying less than the year before. Today, it’s a reflection of the economic tightrope being walked by millions, one discount, one “easy monthly payment,” and one deferred purchase at a time.

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