Peter's Blog

In his latest podcast, Peter pokes holes in President Trump’s latest economic narrative, contrasting it with the reality consumers are feeling on the ground. He also tackles the administration’s flip-flop on Russian energy imports, takes a jab at artificial intelligence branding, and closes out with sharp critiques of a politically compromised Fed investigation and the […]

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook delivered a speech titled “An Update on AI and the Economy” on September 28th at the Oakland Tech Week Opening Keynote, cohosted by the Kapor Center in Oakland, California. Cook discusses why she voted with the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to raise interest rates by 25 […]

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole podium on Friday to draw a bright line around the central bank’s credibility, declaring that the long-promised 2 percent inflation goal on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is “a firm, fixed target.” Price stability, he said, “is not self-executing…it’s the Fed’s job to deliver stable […]

The unique dangers of artificial intelligence are often used to argue that development should be taken out of the hands of profit-driven private actors. The government is presented as a force for good that can develop AI responsibly for the common good. While this line of reasoning can soothe the minds of well-meaning citizens, it […]

Modern institutions have embraced the belief that more data, more regulation, and more centralized coordination will always produce better outcomes, but that assumption is increasingly running into its own limits. As bureaucracies drown in information they cannot meaningfully interpret, the very mechanisms built to improve performance begin producing the opposite result, a phenomenon that undermines […]

The vote to intent ratio is the proportion of total intentional government action that is driven by any voter filling their proportionate share of total government action. If the government can be crassly compared to a corporation, each citizen within that government would be a shareholder with an equal share of equity in the state. […]

The Federal Open Market Committee’s minutes from its June 16 and 17 meeting, released this week, add detail to a decision markets absorbed weeks ago: the Committee held its target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent by a unanimous vote. That unanimity, however, masked real disagreement underneath. A few participants told colleagues they saw a […]

The AI bubble has become a frequent fixture in the financial news cycle as pundits and institutions express their fear that, when it pops, it could drag the global economy into crisis. Central bankers and institutions like the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) are sounding alarms about debt-fueled AI investments, overexuberance, fragile funding structures, and […]

People love to lie to themselves, particularly about themselves. This has been true throughout all of history, and it is now revealing itself to be even more true because of incredible material abundance and new technologies. Artificial intelligence is explicitly sycophantic, but there has always been a large market for things that can increase the […]

Americans are increasingly anxious about artificial intelligence and what it means for their jobs, and politicians on both sides of the Pacific have begun promising to manage the transition. But the real question isn’t whether AI will displace certain jobs (that kind of creative destruction is the normal engine of economic progress); it’s whether the […]