Peter's Blog

BOJ Flags Trade-War Headwinds, Hints at Rate Hikes

Japan’s central bankers are juggling a stubbornly hot CPI, cooling exports, and a fresh volley of U.S. tariffs—all while investors pile into gold. In its July 30th-31st policy meeting, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) conceded the economy “has recovered moderately,” yet warned that escalating trade friction is set to sap growth “in the near term.” […]

Last Week in Gold: Tariff Pressure Eases and ECB Holds Rates

Gold prices refused to budge much last week, with the LBMA Gold Price PM settling Friday at $3,344 per ounce—just 0.3 percent below the prior close. That leaves the metal up a dazzling 28.6 percent year-to-date, still among 2025’s best-performing assets despite a flurry of trade headlines and political theatrics. Early gains driven by tariff […]

PMI Manufacturing Falls, Following Richmond Fed’s Index

July’s advance purchasing-manager numbers paint a tale of two economies. The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI jumped to 54.6—its best showing in seven months—thanks almost entirely to a roaring service sector that notched a 55.2 reading. Manufacturing, by contrast, slipped back into contraction territory at 49.5, a full three points below Wall Street’s consensus […]

Fed Governor Waller Urges July Rate Cut

Christopher J. Waller says the central bank should not wait until autumn to ease policy. Speaking to the Money Marketeers of New York University on July 17th, he argued for a 25-basis-point trim to the federal-funds target range “in two weeks.” With growth fizzling, hiring sputtering, and tariffs muddying the inflation picture, Waller believes quick […]

Recession Bells Ring Louder as Conference Board’s LEI Sinks

The U.S. economy’s “early-warning siren” just grew louder. The Conference Board reported Monday that its Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.3 percent in June to 98.8—a level not seen since 2020. The decline extends the LEI’s losing streak to 18 of the last 19 months and pushes its six-month drop to 2.8 percent. With the […]

Last Week in Metals: Other Metals Join the Party

Gold finished last week at US $3,352 per ounce, a modest 0.6 % gain that nonetheless leaves the metal up an eye-catching 28.5 % year-to-date. Monday’s trade saw prices probe as high as US $3,365, keeping bullion within arm’s reach of the two-month trading ceiling that technicians have marked at US $3,395. All of this […]

Central Bankers vs. The Dollar

If Donald Trump has his way and recent reports are accurate, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is considering stepping down from his position. While extremely rare, Fed Chairs resigning before the end of their term isn’t entirely unheard of. Powell’s obligations would ordinarily extend to May 2026.

Get Ready for Big, Beautiful Inflation

As is the case with many new regulations, the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) had the opposite effect as what was implied by its name. President Trump campaigned on reducing inflation and bringing down prices.

New Insights from the Fed’s Meeting Minutes: Market Expects Rate Cuts

Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s June 17–18 meeting show policymakers content to hold their fire—for now. The Fed kept its benchmark federal-funds range at 4¼–4½ percent and left both the interest rate on reserve balances (4.4 percent) and the primary-credit rate (4.5 percent) untouched. Officials insisted that “recent indicators suggest that economic activity […]

Gold Sits at 28% on the Year as Tariff Clock Winds Down

Gold ended last week at a record-setting US $3,332 per ounce, up 1.8 % on the week and a blistering 28 % year-to-date. The metal’s march higher has come even as Wall Street cheers fresh equity highs and a softer dollar, underscoring bullion’s stubborn appeal as fiscal storm clouds gather. Yesterday’s price action was orderly—just […]