Peter's Blog

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller used a speech before the New York Association for Business Economics on July 13th to deliver one of his most direct warnings of the year: core inflation is moving the wrong way, and the Federal Open Market Committee may have to tighten again. After six months of relative calm, core […]

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams didn’t show up to Tuesday’s Crane’s Money Fund Symposium in person, but his prepared remarks got out anyway. Gold didn’t care either way. Williams described the U.S. economy as “resilient amid the uncertainty” from the Middle East conflict, pointing to steady consumer spending and “robust” artificial-intelligence investment. In […]

In his latest podcast, Peter continues his analysis of the US war with Iran and its fallout in the oil market. He argues the short-term pain from military escalation is pointless compared with the constructive pain of fiscal restraint, and he explains why misleading CPI numbers and an accommodating Federal Reserve make sound money increasingly […]

Inflation’s embers refused to cool in February, with the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers edging 0.3 percent higher after January’s 0.2 percent bump. Headline prices now stand 2.4 percent above year-ago levels, still north of the Federal Reserve’s vaunted 2 percent target. Core inflation, which strips out the volatile food and energy categories […]

With another hot PPI report in the news and a shaky AI trade on Wall Street, the potential for a recession and continued inflation calls to mind the stagflation of the 1970s. As Milton Friedman demonstrated, this dreaded combination is the result of central bankers attempting to pull the wool over Americans’ eyes. The following […]

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect. One key metric shown below is the “Wenzel” 13-week annualized money […]

Peter joins the Land Development Podcast to walk through why gold still matters as money, how the Fed’s policy choices and the dollar’s decline will squeeze consumers, and why housing and credit are primed to reprice. He also lays out why tokenized, “digital” gold is finally getting attention from the crypto crowd and offers concrete […]

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on. Current Trends The jobs report showed […]

Last week, Peter returned to the Sachs Realty Youtube Channel for a wide-ranging interview with Todd Sachs. The two catch up on all the major events since their last meeting, including the election, the growing fault lines in the economy, Bitcoin’s recent surge, and the nature of Social Security.

On Tuesday’s episode, Peter covered a record setting week for gold and a stellar week for silver. With the metals nearly cresting $2800 and $35, respectively, Peter sees this price action as confirmation that the Fed’s recent rate cuts are a mistake. Politicians may love inflation, and the media is oblivious, but the metals markets […]