Peter's Blog

Last week, Peter joined Gary on the Metals and Miners podcast to explain why confidence in the US Treasury market is eroding and why the Federal Reserve’s response will only make matters worse. He walks through the mechanics of Fed intervention, the coming pressure on the dollar, and why gold remains the standout asset in […]

On Thursday, Peter joined host Danny on CapitalCosm to unpack the deepening cracks in the US debt market and what they mean for the dollar, oil, and the political landscape heading into 2026. He walks through weak Treasury demand, the fragile yen carry trade, and why “growing our way out of debt” remains a fantasy, […]

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends. Breaking Down the Balance Sheet The Fed has decided to end Quantitative Tightening (QT) on December 1st. In late 2019, the Fed balance […]

After posturing to use tariffs to eliminate income tax, the Trump administration has now shifted to a narrative that they’ll pay off deficits. Both promises are hollow.  Deficits as massive and persistent as ours demand massive Treasury issuance. That means markets have to absorb ever-larger supply, pushing yields higher if demand fails to keep up. […]

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends.