Peter's Blog

The economy is bound to eventually reach a point where it can no longer tolerate the interest rates required to keep inflation and debt under control, and some of the loudest warnings are coming from the bond market. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield recently climbed above 5.3%, reaching levels not seen since 2002. Even more […]

In Wednesday’s podcast, Peter breaks down the deteriorating bond market and what it means for mortgage rates, consumer confidence, and the broader economy. He also takes aim at the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac trade promoted by the Trump administration, tying it all together with a warning that decades of easy money are finally catching […]

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE, has now come in above its 2 percent target for 65 consecutive months, with core PCE running at 3.3 percent year over year in July and CPI up 3.4 percent through August. The dollar has lost 28 percent of its purchasing power since January 2020, and with wages falling […]

In a recent interview with Bitcoin Magazine, Peter breaks down the long unwind of the decades-long bond bull market and explains why he thinks the pain is far from over. He also takes aim at reckless government spending under both parties, dismisses the Fed’s tepid rate moves as irrelevant, and delivers his verdict on Bitcoin’s […]

In his post-FOMC podcast, Peter breaks down the Federal Reserve’s latest rate hike and explains why the modest move signals much bigger economic problems ahead. He connects the dots between runaway fiscal policy, rising interest rates, and the political theater surrounding Donald Trump’s threats against Fed Chair Jerome Powell, all while warning listeners that crypto […]

Long-term Treasury yields are surging to levels not seen in decades, with the 10-year climbing above 4.9 percent and the 30-year above 5.3 percent, as investors brace for a flood of new government debt. Fiscal year 2026’s cumulative deficit has already reached $1.79 trillion, the largest outside the Covid era, while the national debt closes […]

In a recent interview with David Lin, Peter breaks down the futility of central bank intervention, including Japan’s efforts to prop up the yen to Washington’s inflationary tricks aimed at suppressing bond yields. He also undercuts Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s credibility, explains why falling prices are actually a good thing, and warns that decades of […]

In Saturday’s episode of the Peter Schiff Show, Peter breaks down the latest inflation report and what it means for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, arguing that a token rate hike would be more theater than substance. He then turns to President Trump’s proposal of a $5,000 “dividend” to Americans funded by tariff revenue, calling […]

On Thursday, Peter joined host Danny on CapitalCosm to unpack the deepening cracks in the US debt market and what they mean for the dollar, oil, and the political landscape heading into 2026. He walks through weak Treasury demand, the fragile yen carry trade, and why “growing our way out of debt” remains a fantasy, […]

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends. Breaking Down the Balance Sheet The Fed has quietly been doing Quantitative Easing since February. The pace of accumulation has slowed in recent […]