Peter Schiff: Inflation Isn’t Going Anywhere, and Gold Knows It

On his latest podcast, Peter runs through a wide range of topics, starting with the Federal Reserve’s confused approach to interest rates and inflation. He then pivots to Brazil’s election and what it reveals about the false promises of democratic socialism, before turning to domestic politics and the hollow nature of Republican tax cuts that come without spending cuts. He closes with a warning about a looming debt crisis and explains why gold and silver mining stocks are being unfairly dragged down by the recent AI-driven market jitters.

Peter opens by criticizing the Federal Reserve’s muddled messaging on interest rates. He argues that despite hawkish talk, the Fed’s actions are anything but tough on inflation:

And they should be hiking rates because rates are much too low and inflation is going to keep rising as a result, not only are rates too low, but money supply is growing too much. The Fed’s balance sheet is still expanding. And so we have an accommodative Fed, despite the fact that their rhetoric is we’re fighting inflation, their conduct continues to be, we are creating inflation.

From there, Peter shifts his attention to Brazil, where Lula’s election win serves as a cautionary tale about the seductive but hollow promises of populist economics. He believes voters are once again being fooled into thinking government can hand out prosperity for free:

This again shows you the dangers of democracy because Lula wins by appealing to the ignorance of the typical voter into thinking that they’re gonna get something for nothing from the government. It’s all about the workers and we need to have a government that’s for the workers and we need policy to benefit the workers, the people. But what the people don’t get, what the workers don’t get is the economy that best provides for them, that provides them with the highest standard of living, the highest quality of life, the highest real wages is capitalism.

Sticking with the theme of government meddling that ultimately hurts the people it claims to protect, Peter points out the irony of farm subsidies and the complaints from farmers facing hardship. His take is blunt: risk is part of the job, and farmers shouldn’t expect the government to shield them from it:

Well, again, if you can’t take the heat, get off of the farm. Yeah, farming is risky, so don’t be a farmer. If you want an occupation that doesn’t have any risks, then look for something else. Farmers are supposed to be risk takers. They’re rugged, right? They go with the punches.

Peter then turns back to U.S. politics, criticizing Republicans who tout tax cuts while ignoring the spending side of the ledger. He insists that without real cuts to government spending, these tax cuts are performative:

If the Republicans really cared about the taxpayer, then the Republicans would be cutting government spending because that’s the only way to relieve the taxpayer. The taxpayer has to bear the burden of paying for government. So the bigger the government, the bigger that burden. And so when you vote to increase government spending, you are voting to increase the burden that the taxpayer must bear to support that government. It doesn’t matter if you also vote to lower taxes on tips and lower taxes on overtime, because if government spending is not being reduced, commensurate to those tax cuts, there are no tax cuts.

Building on this point, Peter warns that reckless spending and a growing appetite for credit around the world are setting the stage for a severe debt crisis. He explains why central banks are running out of room to paper over the problem with more money printing:

So I have a feeling that we are on a collision course for a debt crisis. We just have so many demands for credit throughout the world and not enough supply of credit. And all of this is gonna drive rates higher. And the problem is that higher interest rates impact all of the debt that already exists. And it makes it so much more difficult for the borrowers who are on the hook for that debt to make their payments, including the governments. And they’re not gonna raise taxes, whether they’re sources. If they can’t get it legitimately through the credit markets, they have to get it through the central banks. They have to create more inflation. But we’re already at a point where it’s not going to work. We can’t create more inflation because inflation is now the problem.  

Finally, Peter addresses the recent selloff hitting gold mining stocks, which he sees as an unwarranted casualty of the broader tech and AI-driven market jitters. In his view, the fundamentals for gold and silver remain as strong as ever, and this dip is a buying opportunity rather than a warning sign:

So the fact that people are throwing all these gold babies out with the AI bathwater, to the extent that it is bathwater, this is just an opportunity that you wanna take advantage of. These stocks should not get caught up in this downturn. What is happening with interest rates, what’s happening with bonds, what’s happening for inflation, yes, that can be very bearish for bonds. Certainly, it can be bearish for stocks. It’s not bearish for gold. It’s not bearish for gold mining companies. It’s not bearish for silver. These are very bullish factors that are taking place. It’s just that the market is so skittish and doesn’t understand why all of this news is bullish.